A highlight of recent research supporting the climate realist perspective #9

I have come across three scientific papers published recently, all of which support the climate realist perspective, and thought them of such significance that I should share them here, in my climate realist paper update series of blog posts.

First is Colluvium supply in humid regions limits the frequency of storm-triggered landslides (press release here), published in Scientific Reports. It argues that despite projected increases in extreme rainfall, landslides will, on the whole, most likely not be significantly affected by climate change. This is great news, since increasing landslides in a warming world would inevitably result in increased damage to life and property, and it goes against the conventional wisdom on landslides and rainfall, which are usually assumed to be strongly connected. And even this is assuming that the hydrological cycle will intensify as predicted, but the common opinion opinion on this issue may be oversimplistic, as these papers show.

grl29609-fig-0001

Changes in land precipitation around the globe since 1940. Note the lack of a cohesive trend. From Sun et al. 2012.

Second is The record-breaking 2015 hurricane season in the eastern North Pacific: An analysis of environmental conditions (press release here), published in Geophysical Research Letters. It argues that the record-breaking 2015 Eastern North Pacific hurricane season, which produced powerful storms such as Hurricane Patricia, the strongest tropical storm on record in the Western Hemisphere, was due to the combined effects of a positive Pacific Meridional Mode and strong El Nino conditions. Since both of these oscillations are natural, this is great news, since it means, despite what some of the hype at the time said, that human activities cannot be blamed, at least to a significant degree, for the unusually active season, and thusHurricane Patricia.

Third is Twenty-five winters of unexpected Eurasian cooling unlikely due to Arctic sea-ice loss, published in Nature Geoscience. It argues, dealing a further blow to the “warm Arctic-cold Northern Hemisphere winter” proposal, that recent, unexpected Eurasian winter cooling was not likely due to Arctic sea ice loss. This is great news, since colder winters would result in more cold-related mortality, and Arctic sea ice is likely to keep on declining as human-induced warming continues. Warmer winters, on the other hand, one of the projected effects of global warming, are often neglected as a beneficial effect of climate change, but this research lends further credence to the idea that warmer winters may indeed come about as a result of human-induced warming, which reduce cold-related mortality and save lives. As a side note, one of the authors, Dr. John C. Fyfe, has come out with research supporting the climate realist perspective before, such as here and here.

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One thought on “A highlight of recent research supporting the climate realist perspective #9

  1. Pingback: A highlight of recent research supporting the climate realist perspective #12 | The Climate Realist's Resource

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