A highlight of recent research supporting the climate realist perspective #12

I have come across many scientific papers published the past calendar year which support the climate realist perspective, and thought them of such significance that I should share them here, in my climate realist paper update series of blog posts. However, I have not gotten around to sharing them. So, I am setting out to share with you as much climate realist research that has been published this year as I can, because what I have shared so far is only a fraction of all the papers that I am sitting on that are significant enough to be shared. Be prepared-there will be more posts like this coming yet, with both older and newer papers from this year, and hopefully I will be able to turn out these posts in quick succession.

First is How Has Human-Induced Climate Change Affected California Drought Risk?. It argues that, contrary to popular belief, human-caused climate change actually made California’s current drought less likely, and that the current devastating impacts of the drought are not a consequence of long-term climate change. This is great news, and even if, as other studies claim, humans have made California’s drought worse, it’s likely that the drought was overwhelmingly caused by natural variability.

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A graph of the hydroclimatic variability of the American West since 800. From The Mercury News.

Second is What caused the recent “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents” trend pattern in winter temperatures?. It argues that recent ice loss in the Arctic did not cause, as some have suggested, the recent cooling trend in midlatitude winter temperatures, that this cooling trend is the result of natural variability, and further, that Arctic sea ice loss actually reduces variability in temperatures and risk of cold extremes, corroborating other research highlighted here (also see below), and dealing a further blow to the theory linking Arctic sea ice loss to extreme weather (particularly extreme cold) in the midlatitudes.

Third is Future Arctic sea ice loss reduces severity of cold air outbreaks in midlatitudes. It argues, similarly to the above paper, that retreating Arctic sea ice does not increase severity and/or frequency of cold air outbreaks in the midlatitudies, but instead actually decreases their severity. This is great news, since reduced midlatitude winter cold outbreak severity would lead to less deaths from cold, and it deals yet a further blow to the theory linking Arctic sea ice loss to extreme weather (particularly extreme cold) in the midlatitudes.

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Wikileaks and Me

Here’s Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.’s excellent response to what WikiLeaks email dumps reveal as an organized campaign to discredit him, despite his statements and views being supported by the scientific peer-reviewed literature. The campaign was successful, and Dr. Pielke has since stopped studying and writing about climate change and was subject to an investigation from Congress. It’s a very sad day for both politics and science.

I apologize for the lack of posting recently, but hopefully I will be able to pick it up soon.

Roger Pielke Jr.

I haven’t had a chance to update this blog with anything related to the surprise (to me at least) at finding myself the subject of an email in the John Podesta email leaks from Wikileaks. That email revealed that an organization that was fouinded and led by Podesta, the Center for American Progress, engaged in a successful effort to have me removed as a writer at 538, the “data journalism” site created by Nate Silver.

The Boulder Daily Camera has a very good series of articles about the revelation that there was an organized political effort against me.

The multi-year campaign against me by CAP was partially funded by billionaire Tom Steyer, and involved 7 writers at CAP who collectively wrote more than 160 articles about me, trashing my work…

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A highlight of recent research supporting the climate realist perspective #11

As I mentioned in my last post, I have come across many scientific papers published the past calendar year which support the climate realist perspective, and thought them of such significance that I should share them here, in my climate realist paper update series of blog posts. However, I have not gotten around to sharing them. So, I am setting out to share with you as much climate realist research that has been published this year as I can, because what I have shared so far is only a fraction of all the papers that I am sitting on that are significant enough to be shared. Be prepared-there will be more posts like this coming yet, with both older and newer papers from this year, and hopefully I will be able to turn out these posts in quick succession.

First is Modelling coffee leaf rust risk in Colombia with climate reanalysis data (press release here). It finds that climate change will not actually promote a fungal disease which decimates coffee crops, as has been feared. This is great news, since it means that poor countries which produce coffee can reduce their fears of a global warming-induced devastation of coffee crops.

Second is The Resolution Dependence of Contiguous U.S. Precipitation Extremes in Response to CO2 Forcing. It argues that there is no evidence for extreme precipitation changes attributable to climate change in the United States, at least in recent times. This is great news, since climate change is usually associated with more frequent and heavy extreme precipitaiton, and despite its highly controversial nature, other research seems to corroborate the view that the hydrological cycle’s link to increased CO2 is not quite as straightforward as some would have us believe (also see below).

Third is Characterizing Recent Trends in U.S. Heavy Precipitation. It argues that recent increases in heavy daily precipitation can be attributed largely to natural oceanic variability, with anthropogenic forcing playing only a limited role. This is great news, and is especially interesting in light of the research highlighted above, further supporting the climtate realist view that while anthropogenic-induced climate change will alter the hydrological cycle, the current paradigm of simple intesification and increase of extremes is a gross oversimplification.

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A geographical representation of trends in United States flooding. Note the lack of any coherent trend. From Archfield et al. 2016.