A highlight of recent research supporting the climate realist perspective #12

I have come across many scientific papers published the past calendar year which support the climate realist perspective, and thought them of such significance that I should share them here, in my climate realist paper update series of blog posts. However, I have not gotten around to sharing them. So, I am setting out to share with you as much climate realist research that has been published this year as I can, because what I have shared so far is only a fraction of all the papers that I am sitting on that are significant enough to be shared. Be prepared-there will be more posts like this coming yet, with both older and newer papers from this year, and hopefully I will be able to turn out these posts in quick succession.

First is How Has Human-Induced Climate Change Affected California Drought Risk?. It argues that, contrary to popular belief, human-caused climate change actually made California’s current drought less likely, and that the current devastating impacts of the drought are not a consequence of long-term climate change. This is great news, and even if, as other studies claim, humans have made California’s drought worse, it’s likely that the drought was overwhelmingly caused by natural variability.

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A graph of the hydroclimatic variability of the American West since 800. From The Mercury News.

Second is What caused the recent “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents” trend pattern in winter temperatures?. It argues that recent ice loss in the Arctic did not cause, as some have suggested, the recent cooling trend in midlatitude winter temperatures, that this cooling trend is the result of natural variability, and further, that Arctic sea ice loss actually reduces variability in temperatures and risk of cold extremes, corroborating other research highlighted here (also see below), and dealing a further blow to the theory linking Arctic sea ice loss to extreme weather (particularly extreme cold) in the midlatitudes.

Third is Future Arctic sea ice loss reduces severity of cold air outbreaks in midlatitudes. It argues, similarly to the above paper, that retreating Arctic sea ice does not increase severity and/or frequency of cold air outbreaks in the midlatitudies, but instead actually decreases their severity. This is great news, since reduced midlatitude winter cold outbreak severity would lead to less deaths from cold, and it deals yet a further blow to the theory linking Arctic sea ice loss to extreme weather (particularly extreme cold) in the midlatitudes.