As I mentioned in my last post, I have come across many scientific papers published the past calendar year which support the climate realist perspective, and thought them of such significance that I should share them here, in my climate realist paper update series of blog posts. However, I have not gotten around to sharing them. So, I am setting out to share with you as much climate realist research that has been published this year as I can, because what I have shared so far is only a fraction of all the papers that I am sitting on that are significant enough to be shared. Be prepared-there will be more posts like this coming yet, with both older and newer papers from this year, and hopefully I will be able to turn out these posts in quick succession.
First is Modelling coffee leaf rust risk in Colombia with climate reanalysis data (press release here). It finds that climate change will not actually promote a fungal disease which decimates coffee crops, as has been feared. This is great news, since it means that poor countries which produce coffee can reduce their fears of a global warming-induced devastation of coffee crops.
Second is The Resolution Dependence of Contiguous U.S. Precipitation Extremes in Response to CO2 Forcing. It argues that there is no evidence for extreme precipitation changes attributable to climate change in the United States, at least in recent times. This is great news, since climate change is usually associated with more frequent and heavy extreme precipitaiton, and despite its highly controversial nature, other research seems to corroborate the view that the hydrological cycle’s link to increased CO2 is not quite as straightforward as some would have us believe (also see below).
Third is Characterizing Recent Trends in U.S. Heavy Precipitation. It argues that recent increases in heavy daily precipitation can be attributed largely to natural oceanic variability, with anthropogenic forcing playing only a limited role. This is great news, and is especially interesting in light of the research highlighted above, further supporting the climtate realist view that while anthropogenic-induced climate change will alter the hydrological cycle, the current paradigm of simple intesification and increase of extremes is a gross oversimplification.
A geographical representation of trends in United States flooding. Note the lack of any coherent trend. From Archfield et al. 2016.
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